El Salvador’s 27% Bitcoin Return vs IMF Debt: Did Bukele Outplay the System?

I ran some rough calculations comparing El Salvador’s current 27% return on their Bitcoin investments to what might have happened if they had followed the IMF’s advice and taken a $1.4 billion loan.

Bitcoin holdings have gone up by about $27.4 million so far, with no debt burden. Compare this to taking on an IMF loan, which would have cost them around $35 million/year in interest and a total of $350 million over 10 years. Plus, inflation (at 5-6% annually) would have further eroded any real gains from traditional economic measures.

Obviously, Bitcoin’s volatile, so this could still swing either way, but as of now, it looks like El Salvador’s bet is paying off better than being tied down with IMF debt.

Caveat: These are rough calcs, so don’t take them as gospel, but it’s an interesting comparison. Thoughts?